A week ago we heard the story about 83 year old George whose care home is closing its smoking room, forcing him outside to smoke. His family protested, but even they followed the current orthodoxy saying: ‘We’re trying to get him to stop.’
In the name of all that’s holy – WHY?
Statistics for prevalence in any one year of smoking-related illnesses show that stopping smoking for an 83 year old male will reduce his chances of lung cancer by 50%. (Taken from “Relapse prevention in UK Stop Smoking Services”, pp 119 onwards).
Sounds impressive? Well, that reduces George’s chances of lung cancer from 2 in 10,000 to 1 in 10,000. He has a 9,998 chance in 10,000 of not having lung cancer if he continues to smoke, rising to a 9,999 in 10,000 chance after a few years if he gives up. Never-smokers do have a very low lung cancer rate however: about 1 in 100,000.
Similar results can be found for heart attacks: stopping smoking would, after a few years, reduce George’s chances from 17 in 10,000 to 12 in 10,000. But never-smokers still have a risk of 11 in 10,000.
What about strokes? (I hear you ask). Well, if George continues to smoke he has a 17 in 10,000 chance of having a stroke. If he stops, after a while, that reduces to 14 in 10,000. And those who have never smoked still have a 12 in 10,000 risk of having a stroke.
It is more likely that the stress of stopping smoking or struggling outside in freezing weather will kill George.
Go figure for yourselves. And ask yourselves: if this is true for smokers, what are the chances of second hand smoke actually harming anyone?
Everybody knows that the dangers of smoking are grossly exaggerated, that the health benefits of quitting are largely fantasy, and that the dangers of second hand smoke are a complete myth.