By Chris Broscomb
10th December 2006
‘There is widespread public support for smoking bans’
This myth of widespread support appears to be backed up by the results of various polls so it appears to be true but polls can be biased.
From the MORI website
“No matter what the project, Ipsos MORI has a range of different and imaginative techniques and methods to make sure each project is precisely designed to fulfill client needs.”
And
“Our clients’ individual needs are paramount. Our research programmes are tailor made to match individual priorities, needs and requirements. We can contribute our own approaches and understanding to optimize key stakeholder, employee and customer relationships”
No poll is free so when a client commissions a poll they get one “ tailor made to match individual priorities, needs and requirements”. If they don’t get what they want, just like any business, they will take their money to a company that will satisfy their agenda.
Polls and how pollsters ‘might’ have biased the outcome
YouGov gave an explanation of differing poll results – Do the Public support a ban on smoking in pubs? August 25th, 2005
There is a little press release spat going on between the Tobacco Manufacturers Association and ASH, the anti-smoking pressure group over a poll published by ASH earlier this week. The poll, carried out by the BMRB, claimed to show that 73% of people would support a complete ban on smoking in all workplaces, including all restaurants and pubs, some of which are to be excluded from the government’s proposed ban.
A couple of hours later, the Tobacco Manufacturers Association hit back with a press release claiming that the figures were distorted and that in reality less than a third of people supported a total ban. So, what’s the real picture? (1)
Very Interesting – A straight yes/no to ban shows many in favour but a poll with alternatives shows the opposite!!!!! A complete ban is only the first choice of a minority of people; most people prefer a more tolerant approach.
The Government response when the Office for National Statistics figures are quoted to challenge their claim of overwhelming support for a ban is; The ONS survey does not actually ask ‘Do you support/oppose a ban on smoking in all public places?’
Government quote ASH & CRUK polls results from their yes/no polls yet when the question was asked there were still alternatives on the table for MPs to vote on!!! This actual question was not appropriate nor did it match the wishes of the majority who preferred a more tolerant approach.
YouGov again commented on poll results – Smoking in pubs…again September 1st, 2005 A Populus poll for Forest asked people to choose between the four options set out in the Government’s white paper: the present voluntary approach, giving local authorities greater powers to limit smoking, a total ban, or the governments’ preferred option of a partial ban. The partial ban was the favoured option of only 18% of respondents, 23% supported devolving powers to local authorities while the rest of the sample was evenly split between a total ban, or keeping the present voluntary situation.
This shows that the Forest polls matched the proposed options and gave a more accurate result!! Only around 30% supported the total ban.
TMA Media -Press Release: 08/06/2005 Public Rejects Ban on Smoking in Pubs
Check the
actual results
Similar for Wales Smoking ban not wanted, says Welsh poll May 25 2005
POPULUS ASKED THE RIGHT QUESTION SO WHY WERE THESE POLLS NOT ACCEPTED?
The answer is simple; they did not give the required answer for groups and the DoH who have a declared agenda that favours a smoking ban.
From the Health Committee Report Volume 3 Memorandum from ASH pg 110 of 128 It is clear from extensive polling evidence that the public would give majority support to comprehensive smokefree legislation…………….
It would appear that there is a concern in some parts of Government—carefully fostered by the tobacco industry and its front groups—about whether the majority of (at least) the English public backs comprehensive smokefree provision. This arises because many polls (including the Smoking Related Behaviour and Attitudes module conducted by the Office of National Statistics, and all polls conducted by the tobacco lobby) segment the issue by asking about smokefree legislation in relation to particular categories of public place.
Let’s look at some polls …
Check out the headline then check the detail
Survey, for Smoke Free South Yorkshire Tobacco Alliance 27 July 2005. There is considerable public demand for restrictions on smoking in workplaces and public places in South Yorkshire, according to a MORI Social Research Institute survey – Just over three quarters (76%) of South Yorkshire residents say they are bothered to some extent about tobacco smoke in public places, with three in five (59%) bothered at least a fair amount –
|
Completely smoke free |
Mainly smoke free but with separate areas for smoking |
Mainly smoking but with separate non-smoking areas |
Smoking allowed throughout the premises |
Don’t Know |
|
| Pubs & Bars |
35% |
35% |
11% |
16% |
3% |
The Headline announcement may be correct but they were extremely quiet about the fact that only 35% wanted smokefree pubs and bars.
Strong Support For Workplace Smoking Law 16 June 2004. Considerable public demand for a ban on smoking in workplaces according to a MORI Social Research Institute survey for public health charity Action on Smoking and Health (ASH).
|
Strongly support a smoke free law |
Tend to support |
Neither support nor oppose |
Tend to oppose | Strongly oppose a smoke free law |
Don’t Know |
|
| Pubs & Bars |
30% |
19% |
16% |
22% |
12% |
1% |
| Restaurants |
57% |
22% |
9% |
9% |
3% |
* |
| Nightclubs |
30% |
17% |
18% |
21% |
12% |
3% |
Note – So where is this strong support? It’s only 30% in Pubs and Nightclubs. Obviously those that ‘tend to support’ do have reservations about a ban. Did the question make it clear exactly what was meant by smoke free? Is it total or partial? I for one am in favour of trying to remove smoking from some areas of my local so I might have answered ‘tend to support’! But maybe those polled were given too many options.
Issues Facing Londoners 28 October 2004 for the Greater London Authority.
| In Pubs & Bars |
42% |
Check out MORI Polls 11 Feb 2005 (Edinburgh). Those least likely to support a ban are those rented Council (39%) or Housing Association properties (35%) and those on lowest income.
|
Strongly support |
Tend to support |
Neither support nor oppose |
Tend to oppose | Strongly oppose |
Don’t Know |
|
| To ban smoking in public places such as pubs and bars |
39% |
19% |
13% |
13% |
15% |
1% |
From the above anti-smoking groups would claim 58% support a ban in pubs and bars but is that true? A lot depends upon those that ‘Tend to support’. What were their reservations?
Another MORI poll 11 Feb 2005 (Edinburgh). “Those most likely to be negative about changes to their local area are those on lower incomes, those with children in their household, those in Council or Housing Association rented accommodation and those living in the east of the city.”
Note – These show that the ban is likely to be least popular in areas of low income, high smoking prevalence etc and were especially targeted by anti-smoking campaigners who knew that they had more wet-led pubs and these people would not ‘benefit’ from the partial ban. It’s quite obvious that pubs and bars would find it more difficult to replace their smoking customers by introducing food. These pubs are quite likely to be lost to the communities.
A quote from Geoffrey Podger, Chief Executive of the Health and Safety Executive published in the Management of Risk 2006, Volume 2 (Lords Economic Affairs Committee) – “you should be very wary of simply relying on interest groups who quite legitimately express their view which might not be typical at all. You do then need to do some more specific polling with a recognised polling authority. That is the only way you will get at least a contrast to the view of specific interest groups.”
It seemed from the Health Committee reports that only ‘Health’ polls were accepted even against the more comprehensive and representative ONS one (and in fact the FOREST ones which match the ONS quite well) — See this against the YouGov explanation at the top of the page and the polls quoted to the Health Committee (below).
Conclusion
Polls do not show widespread support for smoking bans. What they actually prove is that only around one third want a ban: the majority, in true British tradition, are tolerant and want to accommodate everyone. Isn’t that what the Labour Party Manifesto offered the voters? Isn’t that what the people want?
This myth is busted.